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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 11

Detroit Lions 3 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(8:01) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.13 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 22, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model