Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 73

Detroit Lions 3 – Los Angeles Rams 3

(8:45) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to LA 29, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.04 EP
59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 73, worth -4.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model