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New York Giants

HC Pat Shurmur
@
PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2018-11-25 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 🌧 Rain Spread 4.5 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

NYG
44.7%
PHI
55.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI defense: +0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • NYG offense: +0.028 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • Eli Manning (NYG): -0.049 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYG defense: +0.094 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 22
–
PHI 23
Projected margin: PHI by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

NYG

Kerry Wynn DE Out Concussion

PHI

Jordan Hicks LB Out Calf
Sidney Jones CB Out Hamstring
Avonte Maddox CB Out Knee
Jalen Mills CB Out Foot
Darren Sproles RB Out Hamstring
Rasul Douglas CB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 22
–
PHI 25

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:44 TD NYG (10:44) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 26-S.Barkley for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – PHI 0
  • Q1 03:15 FG NYG (3:15) 2-A.Rosas 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 9 – PHI 0
  • Q2 09:38 FG NYG (9:38) 2-A.Rosas 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 12 – PHI 0
  • Q2 05:22 FG PHI (5:22) 4-J.Elliott 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. NYG 12 – PHI 3
  • Q2 04:16 TD NYG (4:16) 26-S.Barkley up the middle for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 18 – PHI 3
  • Q2 01:11 TD PHI (1:11) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 19 – PHI 9
  • Q3 06:51 FG PHI (6:51) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. NYG 19 – PHI 14
  • Q4 10:15 TD PHI (10:15) 33-J.Adams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 19 – PHI 20
  • Q4 05:52 FG NYG (5:52) 2-A.Rosas 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 22 – PHI 22
  • Q4 00:25 FG PHI (:25) 4-J.Elliott 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. NYG 22 – PHI 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 5 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 30%

    (8:22) 1-C.Johnston punts 41 yards to NYG 6, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 15-Q.Henderson.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (3:15) 2-A.Rosas 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 9 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 67%

    (9:38) 2-A.Rosas 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 3 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 84%

    (5:22) 4-J.Elliott 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 10 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 20%

    (12:29) 1-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback. PENALTY on NYG-31-M.Thomas, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 20.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 14 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:22) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to NYG 44, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 19-G.Tate to NYG 47 for -3 yards (31-M.Thomas, 82-S.Simonson). FUMBLES (31-M.Thomas), and recovers at NYG 47.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 6 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 96%

    (6:51) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 20 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (4:35) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to PHI 34, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-30-A.Hamilton.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 11 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:17) 1-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to NYG 6, Center-45-R.Lovato. 13-O.Beckham pushed ob at NYG 22 for 16 yards (28-W.Smallwood).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 20 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (14:16) 9-R.Dixon punts 56 yards to PHI 32, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 19-G.Tate to PHI 39 for 7 yards (93-B.Goodson).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 4 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 96%

    (5:52) 2-A.Rosas 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 42 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 43%

    (2:39) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 13-N.Agholor to NYG 30 for 12 yards (35-C.Riley).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 5 at the 25 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 83%

    (:25) 4-J.Elliott 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.