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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 11

New York Giants 19 – Philadelphia Eagles 22

What Actually Happened

(5:52) 2-A.Rosas 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.21 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 22, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model