Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 11 at the 55

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – New York Giants 19

(:17) 1-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to NYG 6, Center-45-R.Lovato. 13-O.Beckham pushed ob at NYG 22 for 16 yards (28-W.Smallwood).

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.05 EP
68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 55, worth -2.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model