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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 52

Philadelphia Eagles 11 – New York Giants 19

What Actually Happened

(12:29) 1-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback. PENALTY on NYG-31-M.Thomas, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.24 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 52, worth -2.87 EP
KICK -1.81 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 15, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model