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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 42

Philadelphia Eagles 22 – New York Giants 22

What Actually Happened

(2:39) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 13-N.Agholor to NYG 30 for 12 yards (35-C.Riley).

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +1.94 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 42, worth -1.55 EP
KICK -0.22 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model