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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 47

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(8:22) 1-C.Johnston punts 41 yards to NYG 6, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 15-Q.Henderson.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.39 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 47, worth -2.32 EP
KICK -1.00 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 13, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model