Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 20 at the 73

New York Giants 19 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

(4:35) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to PHI 34, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-30-A.Hamilton.

The Three Options

GO -2.66 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.24 EP
74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 73, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model