4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 10

Philadelphia Eagles 11 – New York Giants 19

What Actually Happened

(6:51) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +2.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.95 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 10, worth +0.25 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.51 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model