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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 25

Philadelphia Eagles 22 – New York Giants 22

What Actually Happened

(:25) 4-J.Elliott 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +1.29 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 25, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.77 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 35, worth -0.44 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model