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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
Sunday 2018-10-21 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US 💨 Windy Spread 4.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

HOU
40.1%
JAX
59.9%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • Deshaun Watson (HOU): +0.113 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • JAX defense: -0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 19
–
JAX 22
Projected margin: JAX by 3 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

HOU

Aaron Colvin CB Out Ankle
Ryan Griffin TE Out Illness
Brian Peters LB Out Ankle
Shareece Wright CB Out Shoulder
Zach Fulton G Questionable Ankle

JAX

Leonard Fournette RB Out Hamstring
D.J. Hayden CB Out Toe
James O'Shaughnessy TE Out Hip
Will Richardson T Questionable Knee
Calais Campbell DE Questionable Ankle
Tre Herndon CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 20
–
JAX 7

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:27 FG HOU (10:27) 7-K.Fairbairn 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. HOU 3 – JAX 0
  • Q1 03:24 FG HOU (3:24) 7-K.Fairbairn 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. HOU 6 – JAX 0
  • Q2 05:36 TD HOU (5:36) (Shotgun) 26-L.Miller up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 12 – JAX 0
  • Q3 10:56 TD HOU (10:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 10-D.Hopkins for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 19 – JAX 0
  • Q3 02:24 TD JAX (2:24) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler right end to HOU 5 for 1 yard. 6-C.Kessler pass short right to 24-T.Yeldon for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on JAX-6-C.Kessler, Illegal Forward Pass, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 6. Jacksonville challenged the illegal forward pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass short right to 24-T.Yeldon for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 20 – JAX 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 12 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 80%

    (10:27) 7-K.Fairbairn 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 4 at the 37
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 53%

    (7:32) 9-L.Cooke punts 37 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 5 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 74%

    (3:24) 7-K.Fairbairn 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (1:15) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to HOU 18, Center-45-M.Overton. 21-T.Ervin MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at HOU 18.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 4 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 16%

    (13:18) 8-T.Daniel punts 43 yards to JAX 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (10:33) 9-L.Cooke punts 26 yards to HOU 40, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds. JAX-52-D.Payne was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (1:17) 9-L.Cooke punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 9 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:00) 8-T.Daniel punts 55 yards to JAX 1, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-33-A.Moore.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 8 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:04) 9-L.Cooke punts 55 yards to HOU 7, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 10 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:14) 8-T.Daniel punts 61 yards to JAX 32, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-D.Westbrook to HOU 47 for 21 yards (57-B.Scarlett).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 2 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 24%

    (14:13) 8-T.Daniel punts 32 yards to JAX 16, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 12 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:43) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to HOU 39, Center-45-M.Overton. 21-T.Ervin to HOU 39 for no gain (17-D.Chark).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 6 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (11:27) 8-T.Daniel punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 44 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 34%

    (2:21) 8-T.Daniel punts 29 yards to JAX 15, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 64 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:09) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Chark.