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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 53

Houston Texans 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(13:18) 8-T.Daniel punts 43 yards to JAX 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.63 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 53, worth -2.95 EP
KICK -2.06 EP
  • 16% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 84% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 15, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model