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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 72

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to HOU 18, Center-45-M.Overton. 21-T.Ervin MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at HOU 18.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.73 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 72, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 30, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model