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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 37

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(7:32) 9-L.Cooke punts 37 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.92 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.11 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP