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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 57

Houston Texans 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(11:27) 8-T.Daniel punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.67 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 57, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 17, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model