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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 64

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(1:09) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Chark.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.15 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 64, worth -0.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 22, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model