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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 29

Houston Texans 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(3:24) 7-K.Fairbairn 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.25 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 29, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 39, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model