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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 66

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(10:33) 9-L.Cooke punts 26 yards to HOU 40, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds. JAX-52-D.Payne was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.81 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 24, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP