Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 56

Houston Texans 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

(13:00) 8-T.Daniel punts 55 yards to JAX 1, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-33-A.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.00 EP
67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 56, worth -3.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model