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LAC Away

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Anthony Lynn
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Hue Jackson
Sunday 2018-10-14 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

LAC
65.0%
CLE
35.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC offense: +0.125 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • CLE offense: -0.163 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to LAC: Baker Mayfield (CLE) -0.009 vs Philip Rivers (LAC) +0.336 EPA/dropback
  • CLE defense: -0.107 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LAC 25
–
CLE 20
Projected margin: LAC by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

LAC

Travis Benjamin WR Out Foot
Joey Bosa DE Out Foot
Kyzir White LB Out Knee
Jatavis Brown LB Doubtful Groin
Joe Barksdale T Questionable Knee
Russell Okung T Questionable Groin
Caleb Sturgis K Questionable right Quadricep

CLE

Rashard Higgins WR Out Knee
Tanner Vallejo LB Out Concussion
Derrick Willies WR Out Shoulder
James Burgess LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 38
–
CLE 14

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:20 TD LAC (10:20) (Shotgun) 28-M.Gordon left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – CLE 0
  • Q2 12:50 FG CLE (12:50) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. LAC 7 – CLE 3
  • Q2 06:43 TD LAC (6:43) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 16-Ty.Williams for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 13 – CLE 3
  • Q2 00:57 TD LAC (:57) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 16-Ty.Williams for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 20 – CLE 3
  • Q2 00:03 FG CLE (:03) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. Penalty on LAC-43-M.Davis, Leaping, declined. LAC 21 – CLE 6
  • Q3 11:54 TD LAC (11:54) 28-M.Gordon right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 27 – CLE 6
  • Q3 03:15 TD LAC (3:15) 28-M.Gordon left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 34 – CLE 6
  • Q4 12:30 TD CLE (12:30) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 85-D.Njoku for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 35 – CLE 12
  • Q4 04:19 FG LAC (4:19) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones. LAC 38 – CLE 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 12 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (12:54) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 54 yards to LAC 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 20-D.King to LAC 43 for 32 yards (87-S.DeValve). CLE-13-R.Streater was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 8 at the 38
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 55%

    (7:15) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 34 yards to LAC 4, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-87-S.DeValve.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 6 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (6:18) (Punt formation) 5-D.Jones punts 41 yards to LAC 49, Center-47-M.Windt. 22-J.Peppers to LAC 35 for 14 yards (48-N.Dzubnar). PENALTY on CLE-18-D.Ratley, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 44.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 36%

    (4:55) (No Huddle) 6-B.Mayfield right guard to LAC 43 for 2 yards (37-J.Addae).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 16 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 49%

    (1:00) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 32 yards to LAC 8, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 13-K.Allen. PENALTY on LAC-36-B.Facyson, Illegal Use of Hands, 4 yards, enforced at LAC 8.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 5 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (:01) (Punt formation) 5-D.Jones punts 37 yards to LAC 46, Center-47-M.Windt. 22-J.Peppers to LAC 33 for 13 yards (43-M.Davis; 23-R.Jenkins).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 94%

    (12:50) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 11 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 49%

    (7:54) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 29 yards to LAC 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-K.Allen MUFFS catch, touched at LAC 11, and recovers at LAC 11. 13-K.Allen to LAC 11 for no gain (59-D.Hines).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 2 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 86%

    (2:19) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left to 80-J.Landry.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 7 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (10:32) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to LAC 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 20-D.King to LAC 19 for 4 yards (20-B.Boddy-Calhoun).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 8 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:23) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to LAC 16, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-82-O.Charles. PENALTY on LAC-11-G.Davis, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at LAC 16.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 3 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (14:23) (Punt formation) 5-D.Jones punts 42 yards to CLE 43, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers. PENALTY on LAC-43-M.Davis, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 43.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 11 at the 26 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 82%

    (4:19) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 43 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 41%

    (2:04) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left to 80-J.Landry.