Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q2
Cleveland Browns
4th & 2 at the 23
Cleveland Browns 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 14
What Actually Happened
(2:19) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left to 80-J.Landry.
The Three Options
GO
+1.98 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.50 EP
- 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.79 EP
KICK
+1.50 EP
- 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
- 14% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT
-0.25 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
