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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 64

Cleveland Browns 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 28

What Actually Happened

(10:32) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to LAC 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 20-D.King to LAC 19 for 4 yards (20-B.Boddy-Calhoun).

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.39 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 22, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model