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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Cleveland Browns
4th & 5 at the 43
Cleveland Browns 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 38
What Actually Happened
(2:04) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left to 80-J.Landry.
The Three Options
GO
+0.03 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.54 EP
- 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.61 EP
KICK
-0.32 EP
- 41% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
- 59% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT
-0.54 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.54 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
