Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 65

Cleveland Browns 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:54) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 54 yards to LAC 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 20-D.King to LAC 43 for 32 yards (87-S.DeValve). CLE-13-R.Streater was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +3.17 EP
71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model