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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 40

Cleveland Browns 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:54) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 29 yards to LAC 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-K.Allen MUFFS catch, touched at LAC 11, and recovers at LAC 11. 13-K.Allen to LAC 11 for no gain (59-D.Hines).

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.23 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.84 EP
KICK -0.35 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model