4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 85

Los Angeles Chargers 35 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(14:23) (Punt formation) 5-D.Jones punts 42 yards to CLE 43, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers. PENALTY on LAC-43-M.Davis, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 43.

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.09 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 85, worth -5.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 43, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model