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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 38

Cleveland Browns 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:15) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 34 yards to LAC 4, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-87-S.DeValve.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.14 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.60 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model