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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 16 at the 40

Cleveland Browns 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:00) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 32 yards to LAC 8, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 13-K.Allen. PENALTY on LAC-36-B.Facyson, Illegal Use of Hands, 4 yards, enforced at LAC 8.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.52 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.78 EP
KICK -0.17 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model