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Arizona Cardinals

HC Steve Wilks
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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2018-10-07 · 16:25 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US 💨 Windy Spread 3.0 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

ARI
36.1%
SF
63.9%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: -0.205 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to ARI: C.J. Beathard (SF) -0.153 vs Josh Rosen (ARI) +0.159 EPA/dropback
  • SF offense: +0.098 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • ARI defense: -0.128 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 17
–
SF 22
Projected margin: SF by 5 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

ARI

Markus Golden DE Questionable Knee
Robert Nkemdiche DT Questionable Foot
Bene' Benwikere CB Questionable Neck
Larry Fitzgerald WR Questionable Hamstring
Corey Peters DT Questionable Elbow
Jamar Taylor CB Questionable Back
John Wetzel T Questionable Shoulder

SF

Dante Pettis WR Out Knee
Jimmie Ward CB Questionable Hamstring
Mike McGlinchey T Questionable Knee
Weston Richburg C Questionable Knee
Joe Staley T Questionable Knee
Matt Breida RB Questionable Shoulder
Marquise Goodwin WR Questionable Hamstring
Richard Sherman CB Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 28
–
SF 18

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:52 TD SF (9:52) 3-C.Beathard pass short middle to 22-M.Breida for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at ARI 6. 6-YAC ARI 0 – SF 6
  • Q1 09:49 TD ARI (9:49) 3-J.Rosen pass deep middle to 13-C.Kirk for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 22. 22-YAC ARI 6 – SF 6
  • Q2 11:05 TD ARI (11:05) (Shotgun) 31-D.Johnson left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 13 – SF 6
  • Q4 06:59 TD SF (6:59) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass short right to 81-T.Taylor for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 14 – SF 12
  • Q4 04:41 TD ARI (4:41) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard sacked at SF 33 for -8 yards (43-H.Reddick). FUMBLES (43-H.Reddick), RECOVERED by ARI-57-J.Bynes at SF 23. 57-J.Bynes for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Total sack loss is 18-yds. ARI 20 – SF 12
  • Q4 03:27 TD ARI (3:27) 31-D.Johnson up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 27 – SF 12
  • Q4 01:29 TD SF (1:29) 3-C.Beathard up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 28 – SF 18

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 7 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 45%

    (7:31) 2-A.Lee punts 35 yards to SF 5, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-92-D.Gardeck.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 4 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 31%

    (3:05) 2-A.Lee punts 35 yards to SF 10, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (9:39) 5-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to ARI 28, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 9 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (7:43) 2-A.Lee punts 50 yards to SF 21, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor. PENALTY on ARI-30-R.Ford, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at SF 21.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 17 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:34) 5-B.Pinion punts 50 yards to ARI 6, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-31-R.Mostert.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 3 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (3:55) 2-A.Lee punts 51 yards to SF 36, Center-46-A.Brewer. 81-T.Taylor to SF 36 for no gain (30-R.Ford).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 7 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 42%

    (:50) 5-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-86-K.Nelson, Touchback.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (13:15) 2-A.Lee punts 52 yards to SF 16, Center-46-A.Brewer. 81-T.Taylor to SF 19 for 3 yards (47-E.Turner).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 9 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 47%

    (6:29) 2-A.Lee punts 29 yards to SF 10, Center-46-A.Brewer. 81-T.Taylor MUFFS catch, and recovers at SF 10. 81-T.Taylor to SF 10 for no gain (59-J.Walker).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 10 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 78%

    (14:57) 9-R.Gould 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 5 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 39%

    (12:47) 2-A.Lee punts 25 yards to SF 17, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-30-R.Ford.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (6:59) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass short right to 81-T.Taylor for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:58) 2-A.Lee punts 40 yards to SF 32, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-30-R.Ford.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 19 at the 73 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 26%

    (4:00) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass deep middle intended for 17-V.Bolden INTERCEPTED by 23-B.Benwikere at SF 47. 23-B.Benwikere to SF 26 for 21 yards (17-V.Bolden).