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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 68

Arizona Cardinals 14 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(13:15) 2-A.Lee punts 52 yards to SF 16, Center-46-A.Brewer. 81-T.Taylor to SF 19 for 3 yards (47-E.Turner).

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 68, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model