Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 71

Arizona Cardinals 14 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(7:43) 2-A.Lee punts 50 yards to SF 21, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor. PENALTY on ARI-30-R.Ford, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at SF 21.

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.93 EP
67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model