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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 1

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(6:59) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass short right to 81-T.Taylor for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.85 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 1, worth +0.34 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model