Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 74

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Arizona Cardinals 14

(9:39) 5-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to ARI 28, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.81 EP
63% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 74, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model