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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 27

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(14:57) 9-R.Gould 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.92 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 27, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 37, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT +0.52 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model