Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 72

Arizona Cardinals 14 – San Francisco 49ers 12

(5:58) 2-A.Lee punts 40 yards to SF 32, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-30-R.Ford.

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.24 EP
63% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model