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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 40

Arizona Cardinals 7 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(7:31) 2-A.Lee punts 35 yards to SF 5, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-92-D.Gardeck.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.62 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -0.95 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.05 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model