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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 41

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(:50) 5-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-86-K.Nelson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.57 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 41, worth -1.51 EP
KICK -0.29 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP