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NYJ Away

New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
@
JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
Sunday 2018-09-30 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.5 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

NYJ
30.4%
JAX
69.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.131 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • QB edge to JAX: Blake Bortles (JAX) +0.111 vs Sam Darnold (NYJ) -0.007 EPA/dropback
  • JAX defense: -0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.050 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • NYJ on 3 more days rest than JAX

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 17
–
JAX 24
Projected margin: JAX by 7 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

NYJ

Charone Peake WR Out Hamstring
Neal Sterling TE Out Concussion
Marcus Maye S Questionable Ankle
Doug Middleton S Questionable Knee
Buster Skrine CB Questionable Knee

JAX

D.J. Hayden CB Out Toe
A.J. Cann G Questionable Triceps
Leonard Fournette RB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 12
–
JAX 31

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:45 FG JAX (3:45) 4-J.Lambo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-9-L.Cooke. NYJ 0 – JAX 3
  • Q2 09:28 FG JAX (9:28) 4-J.Lambo 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-9-L.Cooke. NYJ 0 – JAX 6
  • Q2 01:56 TD JAX (1:56) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 24-T.Yeldon for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – JAX 12
  • Q2 00:34 FG JAX (:34) 4-J.Lambo 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-9-L.Cooke. NYJ 0 – JAX 16
  • Q3 12:27 SAF JAX (12:27) 20-I.Crowell left end tackled in End Zone for -2 yards, SAFETY (99-M.Dareus, 93-C.Campbell). NYJ 0 – JAX 18
  • Q3 04:58 FG NYJ (4:58) 2-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. Penalty on JAX-21-A.Bouye, Defensive Offside, declined. NYJ 3 – JAX 18
  • Q3 03:47 TD JAX (3:47) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep right to 10-D.Moncrief for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 3 – JAX 24
  • Q4 12:56 FG NYJ (12:56) 2-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 6 – JAX 25
  • Q4 11:21 TD NYJ (11:21) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 86-J.Leggett for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 12 – JAX 25
  • Q4 00:27 TD JAX (:27) (Shotgun) 24-T.Yeldon up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 12 – JAX 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 28%

    (12:30) 4-L.Edwards punts 42 yards to JAX 6, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-27-D.Roberts.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 12 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 94%

    (3:45) 4-J.Lambo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (1:37) 4-L.Edwards punts 61 yards to JAX 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 23 for no gain (23-T.Brooks; 27-D.Roberts).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.15 EP
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

    (9:28) 4-J.Lambo 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 26%

    (1:07) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 81-Q.Enunwa. PENALTY on JAX-39-T.Gipson, Taunting, 14 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 5 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 59%

    (:34) 4-J.Lambo 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (12:40) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to NYJ 2, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-52-D.Payne.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 12 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (9:24) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to NYJ 18, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX. PENALTY on JAX-17-D.Chark, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 18.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (7:52) 4-L.Edwards punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 97%

    (4:58) 2-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. Penalty on JAX-21-A.Bouye, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (2:12) 4-L.Edwards punts 52 yards to JAX 30, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 38 for 8 yards (23-T.Brooks).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 7 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 18%

    (:45) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to NYJ 13, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-A.Roberts to NYJ 20 for 7 yards (55-L.McCray). PENALTY on JAX-46-C.Tinker, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 20.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 90%

    (12:56) 2-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (9:25) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to NYJ 14, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:59) 4-L.Edwards punts 46 yards to JAX 40, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 85-J.Mickens MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at JAX 41.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 80 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (4:33) 4-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to JAX 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 35 for 3 yards (36-D.Middleton).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 99%

    (:27) (Shotgun) 24-T.Yeldon up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.