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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 49

New York Jets 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(1:07) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 81-Q.Enunwa. PENALTY on JAX-39-T.Gipson, Taunting, 14 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.18 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.24 EP
KICK -1.16 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model