Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 64

Jacksonville Jaguars 18 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(9:24) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to NYJ 18, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX. PENALTY on JAX-17-D.Chark, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 18.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.78 EP
70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 64, worth -3.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model