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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 56

Jacksonville Jaguars 16 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(12:40) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to NYJ 2, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-52-D.Payne.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.80 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 56, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 17, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP