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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 36

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(:34) 4-J.Lambo 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +2.99 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 36, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model