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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 14

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(3:45) 4-J.Lambo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.32 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 24, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model