4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 20

New York Jets 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 25

What Actually Happened

(12:56) 2-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.94 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 20, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model