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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 58

New York Jets 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 18

What Actually Happened

(7:52) 4-L.Edwards punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.09 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 58, worth -3.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 18, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP