4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 80

New York Jets 12 – Jacksonville Jaguars 25

What Actually Happened

(4:33) 4-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to JAX 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 35 for 3 yards (36-D.Middleton).

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.80 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 80, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 37, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model