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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
Sunday 2018-09-16 · 13:00 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

PHI
43.9%
TB
56.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: +0.112 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • TB defense: +0.076 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • PHI offense: +0.038 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.104 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Nick Foles (PHI): -0.023 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PHI on 3 more days rest than TB

Predicted Final Score

PHI 21
–
TB 22
Projected margin: TB by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

PHI

Darren Sproles RB Out Hamstring
Alshon Jeffery WR Out Shoulder
Carson Wentz QB Out Knee
Shelton Gibson WR Questionable Knee

TB

Brent Grimes CB Out Groin
Vita Vea DT Out Calf
DeSean Jackson WR Questionable Shoulder
Jason Pierre-Paul DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 21
–
TB 27

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 15:00 TD TB (15:00) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle to 11-D.Jackson for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – TB 6
  • Q2 04:57 TD PHI (4:57) 30-C.Clement left end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – TB 7
  • Q2 04:51 TD TB (4:51) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 80-O.Howard for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 7 – TB 13
  • Q2 00:46 TD TB (:46) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 12-C.Godwin for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PHI-77-M.Bennett, Defensive Offside, declined. PHI 7 – TB 19
  • Q3 09:22 TD TB (9:22) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 13-M.Evans for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 7 – TB 26
  • Q3 00:12 TD PHI (:12) (Shotgun) 26-J.Ajayi up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – TB 27
  • Q4 02:51 TD PHI (2:51) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 13-N.Agholor for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 20 – TB 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (13:08) 1-C.Johnston punts 63 yards to TB 7, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-A.Humphries to TB 17 for 10 yards (30-C.Clement).

  • Q1 TB 4th & 4 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (10:36) 9-B.Anger punts 53 yards to PHI 13, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 30-C.Clement pushed ob at TB 44 for 43 yards (9-B.Anger). PENALTY on PHI-83-J.Perkins, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 23.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 16 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (4:05) 9-B.Anger punts 47 yards to PHI 28, Center-89-G.Sanborn, downed by TB-16-F.Martino.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 8 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 36%

    (14:12) 1-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 10 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 19%

    (11:08) 9-B.Anger punts 31 yards to PHI 22, Center-89-G.Sanborn, downed by TB-89-G.Sanborn.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 92%

    (5:49) 9-N.Foles up the middle to TB 15 for 2 yards (93-G.McCoy).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (2:36) 1-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to TB 19, Center-45-R.Lovato. 11-D.Jackson pushed ob at TB 30 for 11 yards (54-K.Grugier-Hill).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 4 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 27%

    (12:45) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz to TB 46 for 3 yards (54-L.David).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (7:11) 1-C.Johnston punts 65 yards to TB 7, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-A.Humphries to TB 16 for 9 yards (24-C.Graham).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (3:58) 9-B.Anger punts 47 yards to PHI 16, Center-89-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 30-C.Clement.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 1 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%

    (1:30) 9-N.Foles up the middle to TB 4 for 2 yards (92-W.Gholston).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 10 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 63%

    (8:55) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass incomplete deep left to 30-C.Clement (21-J.Evans) [90-J.Pierre-Paul].

  • Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (6:44) 9-B.Anger punts 35 yards to PHI 22, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 13-N.Agholor to PHI 22 for no gain (29-R.Smith).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 2 at the 2 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 98%

    (2:51) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 13-N.Agholor for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 54 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:28) 9-B.Anger punts 47 yards to PHI 7, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 30-C.Clement to PHI 10 for 3 yards (29-R.Smith).