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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Philadelphia Eagles
4th & 1 at the 17
Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7
What Actually Happened
(5:49) 9-N.Foles up the middle to TB 15 for 2 yards (93-G.McCoy).
The Three Options
GO
+2.86 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.57 EP
- 33% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.63 EP
KICK
+1.57 EP
- 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
- 8% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT
-0.27 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
