Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 70

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

(2:36) 1-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to TB 19, Center-45-R.Lovato. 11-D.Jackson pushed ob at TB 30 for 11 yards (54-K.Grugier-Hill).

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
53% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model